Results

cesm2.ssp245

Metric cnn lstm xgboost naive
diff_of_means -0.83824891 1.36962882 1.53361457 1.57470863
ratio_of_sd 0.98024260 0.96925080 0.90907652 0.91352163
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.81619618 0.77893794 0.60885574 0.64092897
maximum_error 0.20754717 0.14835666 0.15353013 0.17346318
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.19565780 0.17856303 0.34668940 0.32304725
qqplot_mae 0.04776701 0.05810674 0.09342224 0.10331895
acf_mae 0.08720249 0.09395202 0.14037567 0.12622529
extremogram_mae 0.04341892 0.03373309 0.07448401 0.06544097

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp370

Metric lstm naive xgboost cnn
diff_of_means 0.50003061 0.71760728 0.7584587 -1.62885836
ratio_of_sd 0.96195779 0.90888401 0.8991539 0.97750451
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.77919248 0.64086831 0.6091228 0.81658211
maximum_error 0.17604991 0.17437614 0.1521607 0.21256847
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.10919146 0.24499219 0.3242218 0.17508549
qqplot_mae 0.07169835 0.11534764 0.1062700 0.07869589
acf_mae 0.08725577 0.11752199 0.1304543 0.07915019
extremogram_mae 0.01263560 0.04354219 0.0412176 0.01520675

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp585

Metric cnn lstm xgboost naive
diff_of_means -0.88529623 1.37252441 1.64883486 1.68502858
ratio_of_sd 0.96920437 0.95525922 0.89119027 0.89745514
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.82892802 0.78630213 0.60987065 0.64283507
maximum_error 0.21774194 0.17300670 0.14592209 0.16250761
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.15068755 0.12618596 0.31045752 0.27879567
qqplot_mae 0.06158247 0.06778323 0.10700557 0.11768253
acf_mae 0.06834695 0.07508555 0.12230778 0.11087544
extremogram_mae 0.03734327 0.04123521 0.07101472 0.06623345

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

ec_earth3.ssp434

Metric xgboost naive lstm cnn
diff_of_means -4.3265832 -4.5090942 -4.75379467 -6.87832575
ratio_of_sd 0.9706779 0.9897927 1.02875561 1.05451381
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.6383577 0.6648518 0.80401959 0.84837501
maximum_error 0.1798539 0.1352708 0.20130858 0.24771759
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.4045505 0.3878834 0.27380468 0.26343362
qqplot_mae 0.1727387 0.1782749 0.18798248 0.27194292
acf_mae 0.1322792 0.1281389 0.09442953 0.09521927
extremogram_mae 0.1345714 0.1312253 0.09283425 0.09284305

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Metric cnn xgboost naive lstm
diff_of_means 32.75271617 36.02179900 36.47939400 38.667493444
ratio_of_sd 0.64121747 0.54635628 0.60991629 0.670726975
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.64540806 0.36762317 0.52189919 0.606664373
maximum_error 0.16631163 0.26886792 0.23919659 0.195678637
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.06209150 0.37328431 0.23283396 0.040167523
qqplot_mae 1.29491819 1.42478652 1.44225690 1.528766052
acf_mae 0.03078844 0.12785670 0.08400810 0.048890408
extremogram_mae 0.02745492 0.04533848 0.02577311 0.009254367

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Metric cnn xgboost naive lstm
diff_of_means 33.01956437 36.67296959 37.28542270 39.35906393
ratio_of_sd 0.63099959 0.52901514 0.59930160 0.65849066
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.64725035 0.36093864 0.52627031 0.60395059
maximum_error 0.17650639 0.27343274 0.21332928 0.22519781
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.04346985 0.32298039 0.20359706 0.10196078
qqplot_mae 1.30546836 1.45057052 1.47412422 1.55610813
acf_mae 0.04498170 0.11459311 0.06696827 0.03990949
extremogram_mae 0.03017030 0.03210134 0.01913391 0.02786712

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Metric cnn xgboost naive lstm
diff_of_means 32.46837496 35.89565899 36.37175131 38.49574007
ratio_of_sd 0.64584392 0.54311690 0.60662678 0.67384011
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.65720948 0.37056451 0.52470648 0.62358107
maximum_error 0.16113816 0.27799757 0.22732806 0.21667681
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.07401519 0.35650161 0.22145329 0.08920685
qqplot_mae 1.28367642 1.41985718 1.43800111 1.52197558
acf_mae 0.04315018 0.12476234 0.08399707 0.04741974
extremogram_mae 0.05240570 0.02715152 0.02675930 0.03585348

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97